Forecasting AI Impacts

Objectives

This project aims to harness the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze its potential impacts on the United States federal government workforce. This forward-thinking project aims to predict the transformative effects of AI on employment patterns, skill requirements, and occupational resilience within the federal sector over the next five to ten years. By systematically evaluating job classification specifications across government agencies, the initiative seeks to identify roles most at risk of AI-induced changes and those poised for growth or necessitating new skills. This dual focus serves a strategic purpose: guiding governmental bodies in preemptively adjusting their workforce strategies to stay agile and effective in their missions. The ultimate goal is to empower stakeholders with actionable insights for strategic workforce development, enabling a federal workforce that is resilient, adaptable, and equipped to leverage AI advancements for improved public service delivery.

EXAMPLE:  

Workforce Development Series (occupation code 0142)

Estimating the potential impact of AI on specific job roles requires a nuanced understanding of both the capabilities of AI and the specifics of the job in question. 

For the “Workforce Development Series (occupation code 0142)”, which involves administrative, technical, and some counseling aspects of workforce development,  we can break down the tasks and estimate AI's potential role.


Resh, W., Gurbuz, G. N., & Ming, Y. 2024. "Complementarity, Vulnerability, and Replacement: Artificial Intelligence in the United States Federal Labor Market" to be presented at the Wharton School of Business's AI and the Future of Work conference (May 23-24, 2024)